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![]() ![]() Predictions of a recession have ebbed and flowed since last summer. “That experiment has failed miserably,” Harris said. The Fed’s pivot in 2019, the last business cycle, was an experiment to allow the economy to run hot. Today is a mini-version of that and recent business cycles are not very informative for what the Fed is doing,” Harris said. “You really have to go back to the 70s and 80s to understand what they’re up to. They were able to do that because inflation was low, he added. In all recent cycles the Fed backed off as soon as there was a whiff of recession,” he said. “The Fed hasn’t deliberately triggered a recession since Volcker. That indicates Market participants don’t appreciate how different this business cycle is from recent business cycles. They haven’t convinced themselves that the Fed is going to accept the recession,” Harris said. It is not just the bond market, the equity market also. “The markets want to believe that the Fed is going to come to the rescue here. ![]() It took Paul Volcker to engineer a recession and hike interest rates to 20% to wring high inflation out of the system.īond and stock-market investors alike have convinced themselves that the Fed will cut rates quickly this year, said Ethan Harris, head of global economic research at Bank of America Securities. Under this approach, inflation drifted up in the 1970s. The Fed would keep policy too easy and then slam on the brakes. The late Marvin Goodfriend, the longtime director of economic research at the Richmond Fed, criticized Fed policy in the 1970s for being “go-stop.” If the Fed doesn’t finish the job, inflation will come back higher and the Fed would have to do even more damage to bring it down, Barkin added. “The number one lesson from the seventies is don’t quit too soon, don’t back off from fighting inflation because you’re worried about what the other consequences might be,” Barkin said in a recent Bloomberg Television interview. On Monday, Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin tied the strategy of holding rates high to research from his regional bank on the lessons of the 1970s. ![]() If the Fed turned around and cut rates like the market is pricing in for 2023, it would create “the worst of all possible worlds,” Brusca added.įed officials have been insisting they plan to keep policy “higher for longer” in this cycle. The only way to get price pressures to cool is if the Fed is willing to keep policy tight, said Robert Brusca, chief economist at FAO Economics. The central lesson from that decade is that recessions don’t lower inflation on their own. The Fed has gone back to the lessons from the 1970s, the last time of high inflation. After all, that was the Fed’s response after the last series of rate hikes in 2018- 2019.īut that’s not the playbook the Fed is following, economists say. Traders in derivative markets have partly walked back rate-cut expectations, but still see the fed-funds rate - now at 5% to 5.25% - falling back to above 4.5% by year-end.īehind this bet is the view that the central bank will pivot and lower rates at the first hint of a recession. ![]() Sumup trony8/1/2023 ![]() ![]() You have full control over the value of each card and there does not have to be an expiration date. There is no additional SumUp fee for selling gift cards.Īt the moment these are digital-only, but there’s nothing necessarily stopping you from printing out your own designs with the link. Much like payment links, it only takes a few taps on the app to generate a gift card link. You can create these without an online store and share them through social media and other channels. Gift cards are a great way to drum up sales. This makes it much easier to take remote payments or payments without a card reader because you do not have to send payment links. Turn the setting on and you can use it from the mobile app or web dashboard on the desktop. Virtual SumUp terminal lets you securely process card payments over the phone without a card reader. There is also a ‘Share’ button that enables you to send the receipt link via messaging apps like WhatsApp. Alternatively, when taking a payment at the point-of-sale, simply tap ‘Send Receipt’ and it will go straight to the customer’s inbox. Moreover, there’s an option to include tax info. Receipts can be toggled on or off within the app. When a customer pays online, over the phone, or via a card reader without a printer, the receipt is given its own link within the confirmation email or SMS. SumUp’s customer receipts are generated whether the sale is online or in-person and can be printed with a cloud-enabled printer. Moreover, notifications let you know when you receive a SumUp payment. Sorting by unpaid invoices makes this easier. It would have been even more helpful if reminders were automated, but you can resend the invoice manually. Numbering and calculations are done for you, and payments are linked with the invoice, so you never lose track. The step-by-step creation process ensures you adhere to tax rates and legal regulations, while including your logo and business info. The options include a payment link and a QR code for quick payment. The app offers unlimited invoices that can be shared with customers or vendors via a simple email or link. Whichever way the customer receives the link, they simply enter their payment information, and the transaction is complete. Running an event? Print out the code for scanning on entry. You can generate the code on your phone and pass it to the customer to scan. The QR code feature is particularly useful in face-to-face transactions when you don’t have a card reader or cash till. Using the SumUp app, simply enter the amount to charge, tap the Payment Links options, and choose how you want to share the link. As with any link, you can also put it on your website. You can send links in an email, SMS, messaging app, or via your social media accounts. Payment links make it easy to accept SumUp payments remotely or when you don’t have additional hardware. ![]() Keep these for POS or display them via the online store feature. Orders are made on the fly or from your inventory, which supports unlimited items and variations. For example, taking an order over the phone or invoicing for online payment at a later date. They can either pair with your smartphone or connect to the internet by themselves with the app features built-in.Īlternatively, you can manually capture customer info and process transactions using just the app itself. SumUp is suitable for accepting payments online, in-store, and at events or pop-up locations. We’ve carried out SumUp reviews of each core feature you’ll find in the app. The business bank account comes with a Mastercard and speeds up payouts. SumUp then makes payouts to your designated bank account within 3 working days. The transactions are sent through the cloud, resulting in instant sales figures. Additionally, online invoices can be sent to customers or vendors. Other than the card readers, remote payments work by generating and sharing simple payment web links and QR codes. Unlike other providers, most of the features are reserved for the iOS and Android app, with limited options on the web-based dashboard. ![]() That said, users must be verified and there is an additional business bank account available via application. How Does SumUp Work?Īnyone can sign up on SumUp and start accepting card payments for a flat fee. With that in mind, let’s see if it’s right for you. All its card readers cost less than $100, making it suitable for low-volume sales. SumUp currently serves over 30 countries and has grown to more than 3.5 million merchants. The app lets you process transactions with nothing more than a smartphone, while the SumUp card reader range offers solutions for all types of customer-facing businesses. It charges a flat fee for card payments with no contractual obligations. SumUp is an app-based payment platform for easy online and point-of-sale transactions. ![]() ![]() ![]() It is shown in " The Catfish" that she will not let him have any friends, smashing a mirror he smiled at simply because she thought he was smiling at someone, smashing a self-check-in because she thought it flirted with Louie, slapping Louie's doctor's hand away, and becoming jealous of the x's in his x rays. She is also shown to be extremely possessive and jealous, as evidenced in her relationship with her husband Louie. She is so generally unhappy that in " The Man," Anais was surprised to see her smile. The difference between hers and Nicole's parenting styles leads to a major conflict between the two mothers in " The Authority." She scares the kids into doing nothing other than sitting on the couch, eating snacks she prepared, and never letting them think for themselves to the point where they can barely think at all, which resulted in much of her son Richard's lack of common sense. Her parenting style involves completely sheltering children, or "stopping problems before they happen" in her words. ![]() When she was younger, she still possessed her grouchy and uncaring personality, to the point of telling her young son, Richard, that magic is all fake this shocked him into screaming loudly for an apparent fifteen straight years. Despite this, she tasked Anais to carry her heavy bags upstairs for her, which apparently took an entire day to accomplish, ironically only finishing when she was ready to leave. She also does not seem to respect her grandchildren whatsoever, calling Darwin "fish kid" or "walking fish," and Gumball "the blue one," but she might have respect for Anais, as she calls her by her real name (albeit mispronouncing it). She also tends to spend her days watching TV. She is very dedicated to receiving kisses from them, even to the point of forcing Gumball into one with a kiss on the lips. As stated by Nicole, all she has left in her old age are cop shows and kissing her grandchildren, mainly the former. Granny Jojo has a grouchy and somewhat lazy personality. In " The Choices" and " The Cycle," when she is shown at a younger age, she has slightly fewer wrinkles and black eyebrows, and she wears a yellow collared dress with a light brown vest. "The Man" reveals she wears a girdle, and without it her body becomes very saggy and almost shapeless. She is shorter, has extra wrinkles on her face, a smaller, rounder head, wider hips, ears that now resemble Anais', shorter light grey whiskers, grey eyebrows, and an overall grouchier appearance, implying that she had aged further. In season 2 onward, she wears a plain beige dress with white sleeve cuffs and she keeps her original footwear. In season 1, she wears a beige polka-dotted dress with a white collar and sleeve cuffs and white socks with black shoes, and she has three black whiskers on each cheek and straight ears, both of which resemble Richard's. She is short, wears a pair of cats-eye glasses with purple lenses, and, being an old woman, she has wrinkled lips, saggy breasts (similar to Miss Simian, making them some of the few female characters on the show to have breasts), and wrinkles on her forehead, under her eyes, and around her mouth. Granny Jojo is a pink rabbit, like Richard and Anais. ![]() Gsp5 strombus8/1/2023 ![]() ![]() Managed under the Fishery Management Plan for Queen Conch Resources of Puerto Rico and the U.S.Virgin Islands manage queen conch in their territorial waters. The governments of Puerto Rico and the U.S. NOAA Fisheries and the Caribbean Fishery Management Council manage queen conch in federal waters.Larval conch feed on phytoplankton, juvenile conch feed primarily on seagrass detritus macroalgae and organic material in the sediment, and adults feed primarily on different types of filamentous algae.Queen conch are slow moving marine snails that require direct contact to mate and these life history traits make them vulnerable to depensatory processes which impact reproductive success and impedes recovery of depleted populations.After an incubation period of about 5 days the eggs hatch, and the veligers (larvae) drift in the water column from 21 to 30 days before settling to the bottom and metamorphosing into the adult form. Egg laying takes 24 to 36 hours, with each egg mass containing about 750,000 eggs. Females can store fertilized eggs for several weeks, and eggs may be fertilized by multiple males.They reproduce through internal fertilization, meaning individuals must be in contact to mate. ![]() Queen conch have a protracted spawning season of 4 to 9 months, with peak spawning during warmer months.Size at maturity can vary depending on environmental conditions. They have determinate growth and reach maximum shell length before sexual maturation thereafter the shell grows only in thickness. Queen conch is a long lived species, generally reaching 25 to 30 years old, and are believed to reach sexual maturity around 3.5 to 4 years of age.Learn more about the the proposed rule and how to submit a comment. Information and comments on this proposed rule must be received by November 7, 2022. On September 7, 2022, we announced a proposed rule to list the queen conch as a threatened species under the Endangered Species Act. Learn more about their current fishing/harvest status. Queen conch are highly sought after for their meat and are one of the most valuable species in the Caribbean. Adult queen conch prefer sandy algal flats, but are also found on gravel, coral rubble, smooth hard coral, and beach rock bottom, while juveniles are primarily associated with seagrass beds. They are benthic-grazing herbivores that feed on diatoms, seagrass detritus, and various types of algae and epiphytes. The queen conch occurs throughout the Caribbean Sea, the Gulf of Mexico, and around Bermuda. Queen conch are slow growing and late to mature, reaching up to 12 inches in length and living up to 30 years. The queen conch is a large gastropod mollusk belonging to the same taxonomic group (Mollusca). ![]() Connection7/31/2023 ![]() ![]() For more information, see Prevent Shared Key authorization for an Azure Storage account. Shared key access should be disabled if not required to prevent its inadvertent use. For Azure Files over REST, SAS tokens can be used. 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Rotate your keys if you believe they might have been compromised. ![]() Avoid hard-coding access keys or saving them anywhere in plain text that is accessible to others. ![]() Use SAS tokens with limited scope of access in scenarios where Azure AD based authorization can't be used. Access to shared keys should be carefully limited and monitored. Access to the shared key grants a user full access to a storage account’s configuration and its data. Use Azure Key Vault to manage and rotate your keys securely. Always be careful to protect your access keys. Storage account access keys provide full access to the configuration of a storage account, as well as the data. To learn how to view your account access keys and copy a connection string, see Manage storage account access keys. 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During one week, the football players received the Spark drink and did the sprint test, and the next week they received a placebo and did the sprint test. In this investigation, AdvoCare Spark Energy Drink was given to 20 college football players who then participated in sprint tests (they performed 6 sprints with 10 seconds of rest between sprints). I then searched the National Library of Medicine for “ AdvoCare” and found a study of Spark energy study where it was given to college football players. The website makes no reference to any such studies. I searched the AdvoCare website to see if there had been any published studies on the Spark Energy Drink itself showing that it increases energy or mental focus levels in humans. ![]() They told me AdvoCare is a reference to the values of the company’s founder, Charlie Ragus, who wanted to be an “advocate who cared.” That's a pretty catchy name then. I contacted AdvoCare company about the meaning behind their name. Sitejabber, another consumer site, gave Advocare 4.5 our of 5 stars, based on 2 reviews. See the BBB file for updates and more information. Contact AdvocareĪt the time this review was updated, the Better Business Bureau gave Advocare an A+ rating. According to the AdvoCare website, the company is located at 2801 Summit Avenue, Plano, TX 75074-7453. The AdvoCare company was started in 1993, according to the Better Business Bureau. What Is AdvoCare? Advocare Spark Energy DrinkĪdvocare, also called AdvoCare LLC and AdvoCare International, is the company that markets the Spark Energy Drink. Hopefully, this will help you evaluate whether this supplement is right for you or not. I’ll dissect the product by its ingredients and show you the relevant research on those ingredients and any research I can find on the Spark Energy Drink itself. The supplements are said to be based on “the latest scientific knowledge” and contain “ingredients that are present in effective amounts and work synergistically for superior results.” In this review, I want to look specifically at the AdvoCare Spark Energy Drink Mix, which is said to “enhance mental energy and focus,” and provide “long lasting energy,” among other things. AdvoCare is a supplement company that markets a variety of products devoted to weight loss, wellness, and exercise performance. ![]() Call of duti modern warfare 47/31/2023 ![]() Both casual and professional players hav. ![]() Last of all, forge ahead with Battle Pass Season Six featuring 100 unlockable Tiers of new content accessible in Modern Warfare, including Warzone. Call of Duty: Modern Warfare 2 Season 2 is finally here, and fans want to know the best loadouts to run in Ranked Play. 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